Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is more confident than ever that time is on his side in Ukraine and believes the Western world ultimately lacks the political will to oppose him, writes Ivan Verstyuk.
It really isn’t, Russia might grind itself to nothing but unless Ukraine is well equipped enough that will still leave the Ukrainians ruined by the conflict in the aftermath.
Even if they’re able to get themselves a Marshall Plan tier recovery package they’re still going to be rebuilding for a long time after the war, and a lot of already departed Ukrainians will hesitate to come back if the war drags on long enough for them to have developed lives in whatever places they found shelter in.
I actually don’t think the aftermath is going to be the issue here. The seeming interminability of the situation is.
Unless the West finally commits to the goal of a Russian defeat in Ukraine the situation will keep dragging on until one side collapses. And banking on the Russians being the ones to collapse first seems like an increasingly dangerous proposition, moral aspects aside. The trouble is that realistically, only the US has the arsenal to supply Ukraine right now as the other partners have pretty much exhausted their available stocks. And even with a firm commitment, building up the production capacity to keep Ukraine alive is going to take time which is fast running out for that embattled nation.
If Ukraine can prevail and is fast tracked into the EU, rebuilding it will be almost trivially easy despite the high cost. Because money the Europeans can spare. Arms they cannot.
Ukraine has gotten EU money to buy arms from the EU and most of the have to be made first. Ukraine has placed a lot of orders with that money and they are in production right now. Last summer Ukraine ordered 100 PZH-2000, 60 Krab and France has started CAESAR production at war time level. For air defence there are newly made IRIS-T coming to Ukraine as well as a lot of similar systems. There is a deal with Rheinmetall to set up a tank factory in Ukraine. There is a lot more happening behind closed doors and a lot of the known stuff is German propably because German opsec sucks, but more is coming from Europe. A lot more.
For Ukraine this always has been a fight for survival. Anything that results with Ukraine resotring the border to what it was prior to the invasion can be considered a win. Double so if Ukraine regains control over Crimea. And tripple so if Russia loses its ability to launch another invasion. But these are just bonus objectives, it isn’t the goal of the war for Ukraine, even if some rethoric makes it seem that way.
The alternative to winning was always ceasing to exist. It might not have happened after this invasion but would have been inevitable. The cost of rebuilding doesn’t matter considering the alternative. And I don’t see the West abandoning Ukraine in their rebuilding efforts. The EU is almost certainly going to open conversaitions about Ukraine becoming a member. It would probably include a multi year plan of rebuilding with restricted membership before becoming a full member.
And there are tons of people waiting to swoop into Ukraine and buy up the cheap land and develope it. They aren’t going to do it out of the good of their hearts but it will still speed up the rebuilding of Ukraine.
It really isn’t, Russia might grind itself to nothing but unless Ukraine is well equipped enough that will still leave the Ukrainians ruined by the conflict in the aftermath.
Even if they’re able to get themselves a Marshall Plan tier recovery package they’re still going to be rebuilding for a long time after the war, and a lot of already departed Ukrainians will hesitate to come back if the war drags on long enough for them to have developed lives in whatever places they found shelter in.
I actually don’t think the aftermath is going to be the issue here. The seeming interminability of the situation is. Unless the West finally commits to the goal of a Russian defeat in Ukraine the situation will keep dragging on until one side collapses. And banking on the Russians being the ones to collapse first seems like an increasingly dangerous proposition, moral aspects aside. The trouble is that realistically, only the US has the arsenal to supply Ukraine right now as the other partners have pretty much exhausted their available stocks. And even with a firm commitment, building up the production capacity to keep Ukraine alive is going to take time which is fast running out for that embattled nation. If Ukraine can prevail and is fast tracked into the EU, rebuilding it will be almost trivially easy despite the high cost. Because money the Europeans can spare. Arms they cannot.
Ukraine has gotten EU money to buy arms from the EU and most of the have to be made first. Ukraine has placed a lot of orders with that money and they are in production right now. Last summer Ukraine ordered 100 PZH-2000, 60 Krab and France has started CAESAR production at war time level. For air defence there are newly made IRIS-T coming to Ukraine as well as a lot of similar systems. There is a deal with Rheinmetall to set up a tank factory in Ukraine. There is a lot more happening behind closed doors and a lot of the known stuff is German propably because German opsec sucks, but more is coming from Europe. A lot more.
For Ukraine this always has been a fight for survival. Anything that results with Ukraine resotring the border to what it was prior to the invasion can be considered a win. Double so if Ukraine regains control over Crimea. And tripple so if Russia loses its ability to launch another invasion. But these are just bonus objectives, it isn’t the goal of the war for Ukraine, even if some rethoric makes it seem that way.
The alternative to winning was always ceasing to exist. It might not have happened after this invasion but would have been inevitable. The cost of rebuilding doesn’t matter considering the alternative. And I don’t see the West abandoning Ukraine in their rebuilding efforts. The EU is almost certainly going to open conversaitions about Ukraine becoming a member. It would probably include a multi year plan of rebuilding with restricted membership before becoming a full member.
And there are tons of people waiting to swoop into Ukraine and buy up the cheap land and develope it. They aren’t going to do it out of the good of their hearts but it will still speed up the rebuilding of Ukraine.