Israel ordered people out of swathes of the main southern city in the Gaza Strip on Monday (December 4) as it pressed its ground campaign deep into the south, sending desperate residents fleeing even as it dropped bombs on areas where it told them to go. Lucy Fielder has more.
Certainly I can understand their outrage, but how to logically respond would depend upon a nation’s ability to change that situation.
We’re arriving at the end of the discussion then, because we can argue about their chances but in the end none of us (can pretend to )know.s the future. Here’s why i think that the law of the strongest doesn’t necessarily work against them :
Afghanistan is the best modern example of people who won against impossible odds.
Since you mentioned “realpolitik”, and while you may have heard of it before, you could have heard it again recently with John Mearsheimer and others during the war in Ukraine, it is linked to Afghanistan in that, if all ukrainians were (traitors )like those in eastern Galicia, i doubt that Russia could have kept these territories : they would have had to face constant “terrorism” by more numerous inhabitants.
In the same spirit, wars for decolonization could also count as other examples of successful fights against overwhelming odds.
Yet when i’m thinking of such examples it’s about locals united in their perception of foreign armies as the enemy, and couldn’t be applied for Israel(, not occupied by a majority of locals/palestinians).
Even without that, they can win(, i.d.k. if they will,) if the ummah was united.
If it wasn’t enough of a weight(, i doubt it), they would certainly change the scale by uniting with Africa, the rest of Asia, Russia, and also South America. That’d mean even more coups by the west in order to keep control, and then by the rest, we(sterners) are lucky that they’re still closer to us.
(What interest me more is whether they should win(, and on what terms), the law of the strongest shouldn’t matter, but even through that lens, )Here’s a (naive )picture of how it could happen :
they’ll throw a lot of propaganda to make their citizens f*cking hate to death israelis, painting them as monsters by recycling their war crimes and implying that they’re doing so because they’re evils, not because they want to survive, antisemitism could also help in that ;
they’ll progressively cut all economic ties with the west as long as we dont accept their request, and have prepared beforehand as much as they can to withstand sanctions/‘economic war’ ;
they’ll strengthen their link and, this is important, pledge publicly and repeatedly that they’ll invade each other if(when) someone is elected(, or placed after a coup,) that intend to break this oath ;
they’ll regularly make military threats to Israel, but without acting upon it unless they know how to get rid of the bomb, so mostly to mark a point before diplomatic meetings and eventually take a habit of strengthening popular support like that, rejoicing in the fear that they think it may bring israelis, and of the coming day when they’ll conquer back their lands, as well as enact laws against israelis or even perhaps westerners ;
…
If ‘fairness is excluded’/‘might makes right’/‘the only factor is strength’, then they’re not weak.
Only God would know how to solve this situation in the most perfect manner(, ideally if we were perfect/‘never doing anything that another being would consider bad for h.er.im’ then we wouldn’t rely on states, laws, borders, …, for protection, just freely join and leave communities with their own rules and paradise would come unto Earth, lands wouldn’t belong to anyone and we wouldn’t possess anything else, only living to do good to each other, but since we’re not perfect it’s useless to point that out(, Israel would be destroyed if they acted like that, and Palestine wouldn’t be recovered, and more generally societies would collapse, Christ is/shows the Way but if the other don’t also believe that he’s one with you it obviously quickly becomes useless, sry for the unproductive rambling).
Afghanistan is the best modern example of people who won against impossible odds.
Israel is literally fighting for its existence and has nowhere to retreat to should they lose. Afghanistan, like Vietnam, was not an existential threat to the US. It’s not really comparable because of this.
Since you mentioned “realpolitik”, and while you may have heard of it before, you could have heard it again recently with John Mearsheimer and others during the war in Ukraine, it is linked to Afghanistan in that, if all ukrainians were (traitors )like those in eastern Galicia, i doubt that Russia could have kept these territories : they would have had to face constant “terrorism” by more numerous inhabitants.
Ukraine is also fighting for its existence.
Realpolitik just means acknowledging the political realities of their situation. Political realism.
Guerilla warfare can sometimes be effective, however I do not believe this approach will lead to victory against Israel. They have been dealing with terrorism/intifada relatively effectively for the past 70 years and have built a sophisticated system that insulates them from Palestinian belligerents. While it failed spectacularly on Oct7, I don’t suspect that will happen again. The only domain where Palestinians seem to be able to gain territory is in the court of public opinion.
In the same spirit, wars for decolonization could also count as other examples of successful fights against overwhelming odds.
Even without that, they can win(, i.d.k. if they will,) if the ummah was united.
Wasn’t that what happened in '48 and '67? It didn’t work out well for other nations who went to war on their behalf. Israel is much stronger now than it was then.
If it wasn’t enough of a weight(, i doubt it), they would certainly change the scale by uniting with Africa, the rest of Asia, Russia, and also South America. That’d mean even more coups by the west in order to keep control, and then by the rest, we(sterners) are lucky that they’re still closer to us.
Interesting
I believe you are overestimating both international support for Palestine and the military capabilities of most African and South American nations.
Palestinian resistance groups are getting support from Iran, who is using them as a proxy, but most of their Arabic neighbors recognize that making an ally of the United States and the EU is far more strategically valuable than backing this group that wants endless war and seeking unreasonable demands. Hamas launched this attack because Saudi Arabia was about to recognize Israel, after all, and SA is dependent upon the US for security. If they alienate the US they have Iran to contend with.
Russia has its own issues right now and cannot afford another front, and there are many Russian Jews in Israel. Given their behaviors in Chechnya, they do not seem to be sympathetic to Muslims.
If ‘fairness is excluded’/‘might makes right’/‘the only factor is strength’, then they’re not weak.
It is not the only factor but it is the most relevant one in this conflict, because it’s so very asymmetrical.
Only God would know how to solve this situation in the most perfect manner
If such creatures exist, they haven’t weighed in, which is curious given that Allah/Yahweh supposedly care so much about their followers and who controls their holy cities. Funny how gods are always concerned with the same things that their followers and the men who claim to speak for them are, rather than what I’d expect from omnipotent creatures beyond our understanding. It would be like humans trying to control ant societies in our backyards, why would we care?
freely join and leave communities with their own rules and paradise would come unto Earth
I hope we get there one day, albeit through secular means.
Hi,
I was thinking about what you said.
In a word, you were saying that if Israel’s enemies take every necessary step to ensure Israel’s safety in a permanent manner, then a two-states solution(, including giving back the “illegal” settlements,) could be envisioned, that’s a unilateral loss enabled by the law of the strongest. An inversed unilateral loss, in favor of the pro-palestinians, would see them taking back the holy lands. And a balanced exchange would have those who take(, western countries,) give something back(, of equal value,) in exchange.
At least expressed like that the first unilateral loss doesn’t seem more moral than the second one, but it is true that this loss can be more or less important(, e.g., disparition of Palestine, or a two-state solution, or only a jewish territory in a small part of the current israeli territory). Yet the second choice could(should?) also be seen as the most moral of the three, when it takes the year 1900 as a baseline for saying that Israel’s destruction is a neutral gain/loss for both sides(, instead of a unilateral gain/loss for one of them if we take the year 1960 as a baseline).
I’m in favor of making a trade by giving something worthwhile in exchange of the holy lands, but as you pointed out this is unrealistic, so let the strongest prevail i guess.
“I do agree that palestinians could get back the new settlements of the last decades and end any future palestinian persecution if they&‘their allies’ recognise Israel” is what i wanted to add, not sure that we would have followed the path of least resistance if the roles were reversed, but as you said giving them something of equal value in exchange is out of question
It’s just an addition, please don’t feel any obligation to answer, and thanks for the chat
We’re arriving at the end of the discussion then, because we can argue about their chances but in the end none of us (can pretend to )know.s the future. Here’s why i think that the law of the strongest doesn’t necessarily work against them :
Afghanistan is the best modern example of people who won against impossible odds.
Since you mentioned “realpolitik”, and while you may have heard of it before, you could have heard it again recently with John Mearsheimer and others during the war in Ukraine, it is linked to Afghanistan in that, if all ukrainians were (traitors )like those in eastern Galicia, i doubt that Russia could have kept these territories : they would have had to face constant “terrorism” by more numerous inhabitants.
In the same spirit, wars for decolonization could also count as other examples of successful fights against overwhelming odds.
Yet when i’m thinking of such examples it’s about locals united in their perception of foreign armies as the enemy, and couldn’t be applied for Israel(, not occupied by a majority of locals/palestinians).
Even without that, they can win(, i.d.k. if they will,) if the ummah was united.
If it wasn’t enough of a weight(, i doubt it), they would certainly change the scale by uniting with Africa, the rest of Asia, Russia, and also South America. That’d mean even more coups by the west in order to keep control, and then by the rest, we(sterners) are lucky that they’re still closer to us.
(What interest me more is whether they should win(, and on what terms), the law of the strongest shouldn’t matter, but even through that lens, )Here’s a (naive )picture of how it could happen :
If ‘fairness is excluded’/‘might makes right’/‘the only factor is strength’, then they’re not weak.
Only God would know how to solve this situation in the most perfect manner(, ideally if we were perfect/‘never doing anything that another being would consider bad for h.er.im’ then we wouldn’t rely on states, laws, borders, …, for protection, just freely join and leave communities with their own rules and paradise would come unto Earth, lands wouldn’t belong to anyone and we wouldn’t possess anything else, only living to do good to each other, but since we’re not perfect it’s useless to point that out(, Israel would be destroyed if they acted like that, and Palestine wouldn’t be recovered, and more generally societies would collapse, Christ is/shows the Way but if the other don’t also believe that he’s one with you it obviously quickly becomes useless, sry for the unproductive rambling).
Israel is literally fighting for its existence and has nowhere to retreat to should they lose. Afghanistan, like Vietnam, was not an existential threat to the US. It’s not really comparable because of this.
For Israel this isn’t a fight to colonize, it’s a fight to exist. There are many Arab nations that could take in Palestinians, not so for Jews who have already been expelled from the Muslim world, and are facing enemies who quite explicitly want to genocide them.
Wasn’t that what happened in '48 and '67? It didn’t work out well for other nations who went to war on their behalf. Israel is much stronger now than it was then.
Interesting
It is not the only factor but it is the most relevant one in this conflict, because it’s so very asymmetrical.
If such creatures exist, they haven’t weighed in, which is curious given that Allah/Yahweh supposedly care so much about their followers and who controls their holy cities. Funny how gods are always concerned with the same things that their followers and the men who claim to speak for them are, rather than what I’d expect from omnipotent creatures beyond our understanding. It would be like humans trying to control ant societies in our backyards, why would we care?
I hope we get there one day, albeit through secular means.
Hi,
I was thinking about what you said.
In a word, you were saying that if Israel’s enemies take every necessary step to ensure Israel’s safety in a permanent manner, then a two-states solution(, including giving back the “illegal” settlements,) could be envisioned, that’s a unilateral loss enabled by the law of the strongest. An inversed unilateral loss, in favor of the pro-palestinians, would see them taking back the holy lands. And a balanced exchange would have those who take(, western countries,) give something back(, of equal value,) in exchange.
At least expressed like that the first unilateral loss doesn’t seem more moral than the second one, but it is true that this loss can be more or less important(, e.g., disparition of Palestine, or a two-state solution, or only a jewish territory in a small part of the current israeli territory). Yet the second choice could(should?) also be seen as the most moral of the three, when it takes the year 1900 as a baseline for saying that Israel’s destruction is a neutral gain/loss for both sides(, instead of a unilateral gain/loss for one of them if we take the year 1960 as a baseline).
I’m in favor of making a trade by giving something worthwhile in exchange of the holy lands, but as you pointed out this is unrealistic, so let the strongest prevail i guess.
“I do agree that palestinians could get back the new settlements of the last decades and end any future palestinian persecution if they&‘their allies’ recognise Israel” is what i wanted to add, not sure that we would have followed the path of least resistance if the roles were reversed, but as you said giving them something of equal value in exchange is out of question
It’s just an addition, please don’t feel any obligation to answer, and thanks for the chat