Summary
Regardless of Putin’s decision regarding the war in Ukraine, Russia’s economy is facing a crisis due to factors such as sanctions, a shrinking sovereign wealth fund, and a labor shortage. The war has boosted growth, but Russia cannot sustain it without significant economic consequences.
They could have stopped at any time, but once their three day plan failed, putin decided to engage in a money-burning competition against a group of countries with a combined gdp roughly 25 times theirs…
He’s not relying on Ukraine’s allies running out of money, he’s betting that they’ll lose interest and/or vote for pro-Russian stooges before he loses the ability to win the war.
For him this is the best possible outcome. He remains relevant and firmly planted on the throne until he dies. Endless but not very active trench war is his dream, even a victory, whatever that could look like, is worse for him