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Cake day: July 29th, 2023

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  • China doesn’t want to make the same mistake as the USSR which is expending geopolitical power to maintain an entire hegemony against the USA. They’re content with making money and don’t spend a lot of energy keeping extreme espionage on every country like the USA does.

    China knows the US will take the military option if confronted, which is to their disadvantage, so they’ll find every alternative path or method.

    Biggest example is Pakistan. Its a massive CPEC project and defense partner, yet the military leadership in charge is basically a US lapdog because China knows if they try to pull the same regime change shenanigans, its just gonna end up like USSR vs USA 2 with a crap ton of proxy wars everywhere.

    I think their longterm goal is to just slowly erode at the global economy. Even if the US owns the regime in the country, a significant portion of money will be going to China. They could choose to eventually use that power to reinforce their allies, but I think that’s still like 20+ years down the line.











  • Pakistan is the other lone stander that absolutely refuses to recognize Israel and also happens to have nukes that can reach Israel, yet they’ve done jack on that sentiment, despite the ISI having a history of outplaying Mossad.

    Iran wants nukes for the same reason everyone else has nukes. It’s just a gg ez ace up your sleeve that can be utilized to prevent this exact conventional warfare escalation by threatening to use your nukes, which is exactly what Israel does to the other surrounding arab states. Moreover it would be dumb to nuke Israel when they keep daydreaming about reconquering the holy land, which would be impossible if its covered in radiation.

    Pakistan and India’s LoC is a massive militarized flashpoint that imo suprasses the DMZ, yet overtime they have a fight, it over after a few days when they nuke threat comes out and everyone signs a ceasefire agreement no questions asked.

    Iran wants the same deal so they can be left alone to run their authoritarian regime in peace lol.


  • I honestly think Iran is too defanged to make a difference with escalation. Israel flexed their capability heavily and eliminated part of Iran’s C&C and a lot of their military and nuclear assets in one go, and they’re still continuing with strikes for any mop up.

    It’s a win-win situation for them because they’ve got the US to defend them and they can go almost full force on whatever they deem a threat.

    It might technically backfire for Netanyahu if Iran fails to mount any serious counteroffensive, at which point he won’t have any escalation path to stay in power, but it’s still a big win for Israel’s interests.

    Also not related to the question, but this proves HTS in Syria is just another CIA project that will follow Washington’s demands no questions asked since they clearly allowed Israel to operate within their airspace.







  • It feels weird that Iran, a rather large country, is incapable of defending its airspace against aistrikes from Israel, which doesn’t even border Iran.

    Coming from the India-Pakistan BVR dogfight where we saw hundreds of fighters, drones, s2a missile batteries, complete AWACS and EW platforms, and some IAF planes shot down at ranges exceeding 150km, it’s jarring seeing just how non functional Iran’s airforce and air defense is against a modern threat.

    I don’t think they’re even capable of properly replicating the AIM-54, which is now an outdated LRAAM platform.