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Cake day: July 2nd, 2023

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  • It’s also incredibly significant for future missile attack that all their radars turned on and all those intercept assets are revealed and clocked and analyzed. Assuming a video going around portrays what it claims, Hezbollah even zeroed in and missiled an Iron Dome launcher site during the attack.

    Counterbattery in general is fucking hard. If the proxy can pull that shit off, you had better expect the state actor to take even greater advantage.


  • Although it would explain why Israel is suddenly arranging to get dozens of jets from the US in the last month or so.

    Forgive what feels like a nitpick, but we should take a moment for wider historical scorn. WaPo at the end of March:

    Last week, the State Department authorized the transfer of 25 F-35A fighter jets and engines worth roughly $2.5 billion, U.S. officials said. The case was approved by Congress in 2008, so the department was not required to provide a new notification to lawmakers.

    Biden owns the fuckup, but it comes after all the shit Israel put the administrations of Dubya, Obama, and Individual 1 through, and after all the atrocities upon the Great March of Return and the other surges of conflict. The planes could fill another allies’ order, the MIC could get their warbucks, and Joey could have kicked the can down the road, but here we are.


  • Somewhat contradictory of the massed artillery and APC plan in the first sentence is this fever dream further down the page:

    …Amos Harel, a military and defence analyst and writer for Israeli daily Haaretz.

    “Biden has been telling Bibi that he can’t invade Rafah, so it may be that we see a smaller incursion over a limited time period in which Israel hits the Hamas battalions hard and then withdraws”…

    Where did they dig up this dinosaur? There are plenty of delusional fools in the Israeli war apparatus but this Napoleonic battalion crack he’s smoking is incredible. Israel’s SOF raiders have been getting absolutely rinsed by the locals since minute one of October 7th, and adding massed artillery or a reaction force in APC’s won’t turn that tide against hit and run guerrillas with short firing exposures and tunnel systems.

    The use of “APC’s” without specifying the Namer is also a bad omen. If they try to roll around Rafah in M113s it’s gonna be a big sticky mess of laffy taffy


  • Important legal context: the origin of this Geneva ban is not only that gas weapons are atrocious, but that your foe might doesn’t know what gas has been fired and may reply to CS with gnarlier chemical weapons. The treaty also names the issue that the offending forces may, inadvertently or perfidiously, not know or mix up what gas they’re sending downrange.

    This is a big fuckin’ deal in the current conflict. Russia uses a near-identical gas grenade for both CS and nerve gas, in Soviet era crates and stockpiles handled by the hard-luck HIMARS catchers in their logistics chain. If they fuck that up or a pissed off Buryat conscript wants vengeance via sabotage, a whiff of bad-boy gas on the wrong wind could make things extremely spicy.