“Polls have “called” elections correctly 78 percent of the time” according to that article. Just because they are more accurate than in another time frame does not mean they are accurate overall. This is an incredibly poor rate in the larger picture. Independent groups are notoriously hard to poll and they are the ones that decide elections. If it’s a landslide then of course the poll will be correct. Completely unreliable in close elections. However they make excellent time filters for news networks.
“Polls have “called” elections correctly 78 percent of the time” according to that article. Just
Maybe you should just read their argument as to why this is a garbage metric. Especially if you are arguing they don’t even “relate to reality.”
If always predicting who will win is the requirement for polls, the problem isn’t the polling itself, but your understanding of what a poll means and how statistics work.
“Polls have “called” elections correctly 78 percent of the time” according to that article. Just because they are more accurate than in another time frame does not mean they are accurate overall. This is an incredibly poor rate in the larger picture. Independent groups are notoriously hard to poll and they are the ones that decide elections. If it’s a landslide then of course the poll will be correct. Completely unreliable in close elections. However they make excellent time filters for news networks.
Maybe you should just read their argument as to why this is a garbage metric. Especially if you are arguing they don’t even “relate to reality.”
If always predicting who will win is the requirement for polls, the problem isn’t the polling itself, but your understanding of what a poll means and how statistics work.